Bayesian Methods for Hackers

Bayesian Methods for Hackers Author Cameron Davidson-Pilon
ISBN-10 9780133902921
Year 2015-09-30
Pages 256
Language en
Publisher Addison-Wesley Professional
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Master Bayesian Inference through Practical Examples and Computation–Without Advanced Mathematical Analysis Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You’ll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you’ve mastered these techniques, you’ll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects. Coverage includes • Learning the Bayesian “state of mind” and its practical implications • Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference • Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses • Building and debugging models with PyMC • Testing your model’s “goodness of fit” • Opening the “black box” of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works • Leveraging the power of the “Law of Large Numbers” • Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning • Using loss functions to measure an estimate’s weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes • Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size • Overcoming the “exploration versus exploitation” dilemma: deciding when “pretty good” is good enough • Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing • Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available Cameron Davidson-Pilon has worked in many areas of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His contributions to the open source community include lifelines, an implementation of survival analysis in Python. Educated at the University of Waterloo and at the Independent University of Moscow, he currently works with the online commerce leader Shopify.

Bayesian Methods for Hackers

Bayesian Methods for Hackers Author Cameron Davidson-Pilon
ISBN-10 0133902838
Year 2015-07-16
Pages 320
Language en
Publisher Addison-Wesley Professional
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Master Bayesian Inference through Practical Examples and Computation Not Advanced Mathematical Analysis Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice freeing you to get results using computing power. "Bayesian Methods for Hackers" illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You ll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you ve mastered these techniques, you ll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects. Coverage includes Learning the Bayesian state of mind and its practical implications Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses Building and debugging models with PyMC Testing your model s goodness of fit Opening the black box of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works Leveraging the power of the Law of Large Numbers Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning Using loss functions to measure an estimate s weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size Overcoming the exploration vs. exploitation dilemma: deciding when pretty good is good enough Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing Solving data science problems that rely on mountains of data"

Bayesian Analysis with Python

Bayesian Analysis with Python Author Osvaldo Martin
ISBN-10 9781785889851
Year 2016-11-25
Pages 282
Language en
Publisher Packt Publishing Ltd
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Unleash the power and flexibility of the Bayesian framework About This Book Simplify the Bayes process for solving complex statistical problems using Python; Tutorial guide that will take the you through the journey of Bayesian analysis with the help of sample problems and practice exercises; Learn how and when to use Bayesian analysis in your applications with this guide. Who This Book Is For Students, researchers and data scientists who wish to learn Bayesian data analysis with Python and implement probabilistic models in their day to day projects. Programming experience with Python is essential. No previous statistical knowledge is assumed. What You Will Learn Understand the essentials Bayesian concepts from a practical point of view Learn how to build probabilistic models using the Python library PyMC3 Acquire the skills to sanity-check your models and modify them if necessary Add structure to your models and get the advantages of hierarchical models Find out how different models can be used to answer different data analysis questions When in doubt, learn to choose between alternative models. Predict continuous target outcomes using regression analysis or assign classes using logistic and softmax regression. Learn how to think probabilistically and unleash the power and flexibility of the Bayesian framework In Detail The purpose of this book is to teach the main concepts of Bayesian data analysis. We will learn how to effectively use PyMC3, a Python library for probabilistic programming, to perform Bayesian parameter estimation, to check models and validate them. This book begins presenting the key concepts of the Bayesian framework and the main advantages of this approach from a practical point of view. Moving on, we will explore the power and flexibility of generalized linear models and how to adapt them to a wide array of problems, including regression and classification. We will also look into mixture models and clustering data, and we will finish with advanced topics like non-parametrics models and Gaussian processes. With the help of Python and PyMC3 you will learn to implement, check and expand Bayesian models to solve data analysis problems. Style and approach Bayes algorithms are widely used in statistics, machine learning, artificial intelligence, and data mining. This will be a practical guide allowing the readers to use Bayesian methods for statistical modelling and analysis using Python.

Building Probabilistic Graphical Models with Python

Building Probabilistic Graphical Models with Python Author Kiran R Karkera
ISBN-10 9781783289011
Year 2014-06-25
Pages 172
Language en
Publisher Packt Publishing Ltd
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This is a short, practical guide that allows data scientists to understand the concepts of Graphical models and enables them to try them out using small Python code snippets, without being too mathematically complicated. If you are a data scientist who knows about machine learning and want to enhance your knowledge of graphical models, such as Bayes network, in order to use them to solve real-world problems using Python libraries, this book is for you.This book is intended for those who have some Python and machine learning experience, or are exploring the machine learning field.

Bayesian Programming

Bayesian Programming Author Pierre Bessiere
ISBN-10 9781439880326
Year 2013-12-20
Pages 380
Language en
Publisher CRC Press
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Probability as an Alternative to Boolean Logic While logic is the mathematical foundation of rational reasoning and the fundamental principle of computing, it is restricted to problems where information is both complete and certain. However, many real-world problems, from financial investments to email filtering, are incomplete or uncertain in nature. Probability theory and Bayesian computing together provide an alternative framework to deal with incomplete and uncertain data. Decision-Making Tools and Methods for Incomplete and Uncertain Data Emphasizing probability as an alternative to Boolean logic, Bayesian Programming covers new methods to build probabilistic programs for real-world applications. Written by the team who designed and implemented an efficient probabilistic inference engine to interpret Bayesian programs, the book offers many Python examples that are also available on a supplementary website together with an interpreter that allows readers to experiment with this new approach to programming. Principles and Modeling Only requiring a basic foundation in mathematics, the first two parts of the book present a new methodology for building subjective probabilistic models. The authors introduce the principles of Bayesian programming and discuss good practices for probabilistic modeling. Numerous simple examples highlight the application of Bayesian modeling in different fields. Formalism and Algorithms The third part synthesizes existing work on Bayesian inference algorithms since an efficient Bayesian inference engine is needed to automate the probabilistic calculus in Bayesian programs. Many bibliographic references are included for readers who would like more details on the formalism of Bayesian programming, the main probabilistic models, general purpose algorithms for Bayesian inference, and learning problems. FAQs Along with a glossary, the fourth part contains answers to frequently asked questions. The authors compare Bayesian programming and possibility theories, discuss the computational complexity of Bayesian inference, cover the irreducibility of incompleteness, and address the subjectivist versus objectivist epistemology of probability. The First Steps toward a Bayesian Computer A new modeling methodology, new inference algorithms, new programming languages, and new hardware are all needed to create a complete Bayesian computing framework. Focusing on the methodology and algorithms, this book describes the first steps toward reaching that goal. It encourages readers to explore emerging areas, such as bio-inspired computing, and develop new programming languages and hardware architectures.

Practical Probabilistic Programming

Practical Probabilistic Programming Author Avi Pfeffer
ISBN-10 1617292338
Year 2016-04-07
Pages 456
Language en
Publisher
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Summary Practical Probabilistic Programming introduces the working programmer to probabilistic programming. In it, you'll learn how to use the PP paradigm to model application domains and then express those probabilistic models in code. Although PP can seem abstract, in this book you'll immediately work on practical examples, like using the Figaro language to build a spam filter and applying Bayesian and Markov networks, to diagnose computer system data problems and recover digital images. Purchase of the print book includes a free eBook in PDF, Kindle, and ePub formats from Manning Publications. About the Technology The data you accumulate about your customers, products, and website users can help you not only to interpret your past, it can also help you predict your future! Probabilistic programming uses code to draw probabilistic inferences from data. By applying specialized algorithms, your programs assign degrees of probability to conclusions. This means you can forecast future events like sales trends, computer system failures, experimental outcomes, and many other critical concerns. About the Book Practical Probabilistic Programming introduces the working programmer to probabilistic programming. In this book, you’ll immediately work on practical examples like building a spam filter, diagnosing computer system data problems, and recovering digital images. You’ll discover probabilistic inference, where algorithms help make extended predictions about issues like social media usage. Along the way, you’ll learn to use functional-style programming for text analysis, object-oriented models to predict social phenomena like the spread of tweets, and open universe models to gauge real-life social media usage. The book also has chapters on how probabilistic models can help in decision making and modeling of dynamic systems. What's Inside Introduction to probabilistic modeling Writing probabilistic programs in Figaro Building Bayesian networks Predicting product lifecycles Decision-making algorithms About the Reader This book assumes no prior exposure to probabilistic programming. Knowledge of Scala is helpful. About the Author Avi Pfeffer is the principal developer of the Figaro language for probabilistic programming. Table of Contents PART 1 INTRODUCING PROBABILISTIC PROGRAMMING AND FIGARO Probabilistic programming in a nutshell A quick Figaro tutorial Creating a probabilistic programming application PART 2 WRITING PROBABILISTIC PROGRAMS Probabilistic models and probabilistic programs Modeling dependencies with Bayesian and Markov networks Using Scala and Figaro collections to build up models Object-oriented probabilistic modeling Modeling dynamic systems PART 3 INFERENCE The three rules of probabilistic inference Factored inference algorithms Sampling algorithms Solving other inference tasks Dynamic reasoning and parameter learning

Think Bayes

Think Bayes Author Allen B. Downey
ISBN-10 9781491945438
Year 2013-09-12
Pages 214
Language en
Publisher "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
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If you know how to program with Python and also know a little about probability, you’re ready to tackle Bayesian statistics. With this book, you'll learn how to solve statistical problems with Python code instead of mathematical notation, and use discrete probability distributions instead of continuous mathematics. Once you get the math out of the way, the Bayesian fundamentals will become clearer, and you’ll begin to apply these techniques to real-world problems. Bayesian statistical methods are becoming more common and more important, but not many resources are available to help beginners. Based on undergraduate classes taught by author Allen Downey, this book’s computational approach helps you get a solid start. Use your existing programming skills to learn and understand Bayesian statistics Work with problems involving estimation, prediction, decision analysis, evidence, and hypothesis testing Get started with simple examples, using coins, M&Ms, Dungeons & Dragons dice, paintball, and hockey Learn computational methods for solving real-world problems, such as interpreting SAT scores, simulating kidney tumors, and modeling the human microbiome.

Multiple Factor Analysis by Example Using R

Multiple Factor Analysis by Example Using R Author Jérôme Pagès
ISBN-10 9781498786690
Year 2016-05-02
Pages 272
Language en
Publisher CRC Press
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Multiple factor analysis (MFA) enables users to analyze tables of individuals and variables in which the variables are structured into quantitative, qualitative, or mixed groups. Written by the co-developer of this methodology, Multiple Factor Analysis by Example Using R brings together the theoretical and methodological aspects of MFA. It also includes examples of applications and details of how to implement MFA using an R package (FactoMineR). The first two chapters cover the basic factorial analysis methods of principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). The next chapter discusses factor analysis for mixed data (FAMD), a little-known method for simultaneously analyzing quantitative and qualitative variables without group distinction. Focusing on MFA, subsequent chapters examine the key points of MFA in the context of quantitative variables as well as qualitative and mixed data. The author also compares MFA and Procrustes analysis and presents a natural extension of MFA: hierarchical MFA (HMFA). The final chapter explores several elements of matrix calculation and metric spaces used in the book.

Doing Bayesian Data Analysis

Doing Bayesian Data Analysis Author John Kruschke
ISBN-10 0123814863
Year 2010-11-25
Pages 672
Language en
Publisher Academic Press
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There is an explosion of interest in Bayesian statistics, primarily because recently created computational methods have finally made Bayesian analysis tractable and accessible to a wide audience. Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, A Tutorial Introduction with R and BUGS, is for first year graduate students or advanced undergraduates and provides an accessible approach, as all mathematics is explained intuitively and with concrete examples. It assumes only algebra and ‘rusty’ calculus. Unlike other textbooks, this book begins with the basics, including essential concepts of probability and random sampling. The book gradually climbs all the way to advanced hierarchical modeling methods for realistic data. The text provides complete examples with the R programming language and BUGS software (both freeware), and begins with basic programming examples, working up gradually to complete programs for complex analyses and presentation graphics. These templates can be easily adapted for a large variety of students and their own research needs.The textbook bridges the students from their undergraduate training into modern Bayesian methods. Accessible, including the basics of essential concepts of probability and random sampling Examples with R programming language and BUGS software Comprehensive coverage of all scenarios addressed by non-bayesian textbooks- t-tests, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and comparisons in ANOVA, multiple regression, and chi-square (contingency table analysis). Coverage of experiment planning R and BUGS computer programming code on website Exercises have explicit purposes and guidelines for accomplishment

Data Preprocessing in Data Mining

Data Preprocessing in Data Mining Author Salvador García
ISBN-10 9783319102474
Year 2014-08-30
Pages 320
Language en
Publisher Springer
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Data Preprocessing for Data Mining addresses one of the most important issues within the well-known Knowledge Discovery from Data process. Data directly taken from the source will likely have inconsistencies, errors or most importantly, it is not ready to be considered for a data mining process. Furthermore, the increasing amount of data in recent science, industry and business applications, calls to the requirement of more complex tools to analyze it. Thanks to data preprocessing, it is possible to convert the impossible into possible, adapting the data to fulfill the input demands of each data mining algorithm. Data preprocessing includes the data reduction techniques, which aim at reducing the complexity of the data, detecting or removing irrelevant and noisy elements from the data. This book is intended to review the tasks that fill the gap between the data acquisition from the source and the data mining process. A comprehensive look from a practical point of view, including basic concepts and surveying the techniques proposed in the specialized literature, is given.Each chapter is a stand-alone guide to a particular data preprocessing topic, from basic concepts and detailed descriptions of classical algorithms, to an incursion of an exhaustive catalog of recent developments. The in-depth technical descriptions make this book suitable for technical professionals, researchers, senior undergraduate and graduate students in data science, computer science and engineering.

Statistics is Easy

Statistics is Easy Author Dennis Elliott Shasha
ISBN-10 9781598297775
Year 2008
Pages 74
Language en
Publisher Morgan & Claypool Publishers
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Statistics is the activity of inferring results about a population given a sample. Historically, statistics books assume an underlying distribution to the data (typically, the normal distribution) and derive results under that assumption. Unfortunately, in real life, one cannot normally be sure of the underlying distribution. For that reason, this book presents a distribution-independent approach to statistics based on a simple computational counting idea called resampling. This book explains the basic concepts of resampling, then systematically presents the standard statistical measures along with programs (in the language Python) to calculate them using resampling, and finally illustrates the use of the measures and programs in a case study. The text uses junior high school algebra and many examples to explain the concepts. The ideal reader has mastered at least elementary mathematics, likes to think procedurally, and is comfortable with computers. Table of Contents: The Basic Idea / Bias Corrected Confidence Intervals / Pragmatic Considerations When Using Resampling / Terminology / The Essential Stats / Case Study: New Mexico's 2004 Presidential Ballots / References

Handbook of Statistical Analysis and Data Mining Applications

Handbook of Statistical Analysis and Data Mining Applications Author John Elder
ISBN-10 0080912036
Year 2009-05-14
Pages 864
Language en
Publisher Academic Press
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The Handbook of Statistical Analysis and Data Mining Applications is a comprehensive professional reference book that guides business analysts, scientists, engineers and researchers (both academic and industrial) through all stages of data analysis, model building and implementation. The Handbook helps one discern the technical and business problem, understand the strengths and weaknesses of modern data mining algorithms, and employ the right statistical methods for practical application. Use this book to address massive and complex datasets with novel statistical approaches and be able to objectively evaluate analyses and solutions. It has clear, intuitive explanations of the principles and tools for solving problems using modern analytic techniques, and discusses their application to real problems, in ways accessible and beneficial to practitioners across industries - from science and engineering, to medicine, academia and commerce. This handbook brings together, in a single resource, all the information a beginner will need to understand the tools and issues in data mining to build successful data mining solutions. Written "By Practitioners for Practitioners" Non-technical explanations build understanding without jargon and equations Tutorials in numerous fields of study provide step-by-step instruction on how to use supplied tools to build models Practical advice from successful real-world implementations Includes extensive case studies, examples, MS PowerPoint slides and datasets CD-DVD with valuable fully-working 90-day software included: "Complete Data Miner - QC-Miner - Text Miner" bound with book

A Blueprint for Affective Computing

A Blueprint for Affective Computing Author Klaus R. Scherer
ISBN-10 9780199566709
Year 2010-09-23
Pages 392
Language en
Publisher Oxford University Press
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'Affective computing' is a branch of computing concerned with the theory and construction of machines which can detect, respond to, and simulate human emotional states. This book presents an interdisciplinary exploration of this rapidly expanding field, aimed at those in psychology, computational neuroscience, computer science, and AI.

Building Trading Bots Using Java

Building Trading Bots Using Java Author Shekhar Varshney
ISBN-10 9781484225202
Year 2016-12-07
Pages 281
Language en
Publisher Apress
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Build an automated currency trading bot from scratch with java. In this book, you will learn about the nitty-gritty of automated trading and have a closer look at Java, the Spring Framework, event-driven programming, and other open source APIs, notably Google's Guava API. And of course, development will all be test-driven with unit testing coverage. The central theme of Building Trading Bots Using Java is to create a framework that can facilitate automated trading on most of the brokerage platforms, with minimum changes. At the end of the journey, you will have a working trading bot, with a sample implementation using the OANDA REST API, which is free to use. What You'll Learn Find out about trading bots Discover the details of tradeable instruments and apply bots to them Track and use market data events Place orders and trades Work with trade/order and account events Who This Book Is For Experienced programmers new to bots and other algorithmic trading and finance techniques.